The View from the Knacker’s Yard. 2: Do we don’t we?

This is political theater at its most delicious; President Obama puts his Syria strike on hold to await a vote of approval by Congress. Yes, friends, that is the same Congress that has determinedly and unfailingly turned away every proposal coming out of the White House since Obama took up residence there some five years ago. The Republican Party has a majority in the House of Representatives and enough votes in the Senate to deny passage of any meaningful legislation. Republicans have such a aversion for this President that they do everything that they can to prevent him gaining anything that could be construed as a political victory, hence the gridlock that Washington has been in for the duration of the Obama presidency. So does Obama’s decision to send this to Congress mean that he wants it to suffer the same fate as Cameron’s request to the British parliament a couple of days before? Maybe so, but not necessarily; it is possible that he has seized an opportunity for putting the Republicans on the horns of a delightful dilemma. Republicans are persons whose natural tendency is to use America’s might at every opening to send hurt to any foreigners who displease them, so they are intrinsically inclined to do a bit of Assad bashing. Obama has very slickly and firmly positioned himself on the moral high ground by castigating the Assad folks for gassing their own people, and threatening retribution; he asserts that the US intelligence community has firm evidence for this transgression of international law and moral righteousness, and he points out that the US Navy has ships positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles locked and loaded onto Syrian targets of the appropriate degree of significance. They are ready to fire on his command and he gave every sign that he would pull the trigger. That he now turns this decision over to Congress means that he wants to put this august body on the spot; either support your President (anathema) or else open yourself to accusations of being lily-livered in the face of Assad and his henchmen-a true stroke of Obama genius.

The delicious icing on this cake is that Congress, as we speak, is in recess, with the members presumably in their districts consulting with their constituents. The polls tell us that the US electorate, while rightly outraged about the gassing of civilians, would prefer that the US does nothing drastic about it, fearing yet another war looming in the Arab territories with consequent detriment to American lives and treasure. Thus the congressmen might be hearing the go-slow from the grass roots and when the debate and vote eventually come, Obama could get the same message that Cameron got the other day. Another huge factor in all this is the Jewish lobby in Congress who, prodded by Israel, will be giving their all to persuade senators and representatives to vote in favor of the strike, thinking that it would send a message of deterrence to Iran, that nation whose shadow looms large over the Eastern Mediterranean.

Israel is in the unfortunate position of being sandwiched geographically between Syria to the north and Egypt to the south. These are both Moslem nations that have been ruled by despotic regimes for a generation or more and Israel has found ways to forge accommodations with them. It was not in Israel’s interest to see Mubarak fall in the political turmoil that has become euphemistically called the Arab Spring, and similarly it will not be in their interests to see Assad fall and be replaced by a government of Moslem fundamentalists. It is in no one’s interest, Israel’s most of all, to see regime change in Syria; the Assad regime might be worrisome, but it is less worrisome than having the country next door run by fundamentalists.  If only they would pursue their civil war with armaments that kill in a more politically correct manner.

It promises to be an interesting fall and winter…

 

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